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Football: 10 things to look out for this weekend | Daniel Harris

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A refrain from Cup final patronising, the deployment of Santi Cazorla, Manchester United momentum and another Milan derby

*1) Dignity*

Swansea City and Bradford City are football clubs of 101 years and 110 years respective standing. That they are to contest a cup final is of major significance, but it is neither remotely defining, nor all they comprise. Supporters frequently lambast rivals for "having no history", but history, though written to serve the winners, exists outside of those who get to parade in silly hats, and a narrative does not require a dry list of honours to be compelling. So, as neutrals, we can be pleased that less decorated clubs have reached Wembley, but should refrain from patronising their heritage and supporters as loveable, pattable lucky chancers whom we're just pleased to see smile after all that life has inflicted upon them.

*2) Round players in round holes*

Bayern Munich are far better than Arsenal, and have already made better sides than them look silly this season. Similarly, a score of 3-1 would not be an almighty shock were they to encounter Manchester United later in the competition, in the same way that the three other English clubs would likely have struggled to escape the group in which Manchester City were biletted. In both cases, the principal point for criticism is the manner of the beatings, and for Arsenal, this is due in part to the shape of the team. Mikel Arteta is a decent player, particularly given feet that would not look out of place in ballet shoes, but he is not good enough to justify compromising Santi Cazorla. Cazorla is still able to contribute from wide areas because he is very good, but his principal talents lie in other areas. Given time, Jack Wilshere will mature into a goalscoring, goalmaking midfielder, but his ability as a general is such that with him and Cazorla in the centre of the pitch, Arsenal ought to enjoy sufficient possession as not to require a third man sitting deeper. Instead, inserting Rosicky, who always seeks to move the ball forward, and quickly, would inject the tempo that is missing from their attacking play. Wenger bought Cazorla to play centrally and will know that things aren't working; a home game with Villa is the perfect opportunity to start making them right.

*3) If you know your history*

Though it would be foolish to dismiss the title race as over, Manchester City are certainly chanelling Derek Redmond. Yet Manchester United would still do well to recall past seasons. In 1997-98, they carelessly ceded points against Coventry, Southampton, Leicester, Bolton and Sheffield Wednesday – but Arsenal were so far behind that it didn't matter. Except that it did, and, while they waited to be caught, they were shovelled out of Europe by Monaco. Then, in 2000-01, with the title effectively secured on New Year's Day, this time for real, weekly intensity dropped, leading to an embarrassing 2-0 thumping at Anfield followed by a limp European disintegration at the mere sight of Bayern Munich. This weekend's game at QPR, coming in the middle of the Madrid tie – albeit during an extended hiatus while Uefa sequester as much money as possible – will show whether history buff Fergie has: a) learnt his lesson; and b) communicated it to his players. Momentum is crucial.

*4) Many times bitten*

Paul Moran, Andy Turner, Ossie Ardiles, José Dominguez (who played on the winguez), Sergiy Rebrov, Simon Davies, Dean Marney, Helder Postiga, Stephane Dalmat, Mido, Juande Ramos. Tottenham fans are more familiar with the crushing mirage of a false dawn than any others in the country, realisation eliciting a low, lingering moan which speakers of Northlondonese translate as "typical Spurs" and typically set on a variety pack bed of discretionary, haphazardly-connecting expletives. But now, for the first time in 25 years, their team looks like it's moving inexorably upwards, and this weekend will be a test of the hypothesis. West Ham away is precisely the kind of game that traditional Spurs lose – but given Arsenal's likely win, it is crucial that they do the same.

*5) Coming home*

In a goodly portion of seasons, a squad of players already halfway to the sun are suddenly summonsed back to relegation-cheating action, forced to mentally unpeel the floral Speedos, unstick the beer bottle labels, and actually do some work. Form over the last three months suggests that this might befall West Ham. Though a run of 11 points from a possible 33 isn't horrific, they aren't playing well, sit second-bottom of the form table, and are above a fair few sides arguably their superior in the real one. Given an away record that's the miserable side of depressing, they must quickly rummage around for a few more home results, starting with Tottenham on Monday. With their next two games challenging away assignments at Stoke and Chelsea and their remaining fixturess against teams either in the top few or the bottom few, it could be an uncomfortable spring in east London; it's tricky to blow bubbles when you're sinking.

*6) Should do better*

Both Newcastle and Southampton ought to have accumulated more points this season, to the extent that this is philosophically possible – probably not at all. But despite ill luck with injuries, Newcastle's 27 is a shameful testament to curious management and invertebrate capitulation, while Southampton have had points forsake them after expending notable effort, partly due to carelessness and partly accomplished opponents. Yet in recent weeks, both sides have improved significantly and displayed suitable attacking inclination, so this ought to be the weekend's most entertaining game.

*7) Pudding proof*

David Moyes' away record against Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool reads played 48, points 0. Now, this is not quite as damning as it seems; the teams in question know that no team of his represents an easy out, and accordingly tend neither to rotate nor disengage – though the absence of an away derby win must grate Evertonian souls. But the success of this season will be defined equally by games against less proficient opposition – should they not beat Norwich and should Arsenal beat Villa, European qualification will depend on relevant Cup outcomes, and will also put them within Liverpool's sights. Or put another way, Everton are in danger of finishing outside the top six, which, given how well they've played and the quality of their players, would constitute gross misconduct.

*8) Bang and blame*

At the end of this season, the board of Manchester City will likely face a significant decision regarding the future of Roberto Mancini, whose self-rhapsodising soliloquy earlier this week bore more than a hint of demob-happy. On the one hand, it's not tricky to construct an argument for his dismissal – the most expensively-assembled football team of all-time ought to have clinched the title well before the final day of last season, done better this, and performed in Europe. A sizeable chunk of the blame rests with his players, but responsibility for the gaping holes and inadequate personnel in the squad cannot be allocated elsewhere, whatever the contribution of Brian Marwood. And yet, a look at their opponents on Sunday offers a cautionary tale. If City are solely chasing trophies then Chelsea's haul is not to be slighted, but a club desiring a dynasty needs a long-term manager. It will require a strong showing between now and May for him to have the remotest chance of filling that position.

*9) FYI*

Did you know that Mario Balotelli plays for Milan? Well, he does, apparently, and Sunday night sees his first derby match for the Rossoneri. After his team's exceptional effort in shutting down Barcelona, it will be interesting to see whether he replaces Giampaolo Pazzini in the starting XI, given the prominence of his second-half performance, and also whether his team have the strength to raise themselves after a sapping physical effort followed by a mentally draining adrenaline dump.

*10) Fulham v Stoke*

If this game was played in a deserted forest, would it have taken place? The season's first truly meaningless encounter, it will almost definitely be terrible; Craven Cottage's neutral section is unlikely to be thronging.

Daniel Harris


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